Earlier this year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced it would be narrowing its previously expanded list of ten Best Picture nominees down to a flex number ranging between as few as five and as many as ten. Now, with no set number of nominees, 2011 seems to have become like a bad episode of The Bachelor, with a few movies slugging it out for the final rose in the form of a nomination.
However, for the sake of this forum, let's not concern ourselves with which films make it in; instead, let's set our attention on which film might come out on top. After having considered all foreseeable avenues, I don't think there's any doubt that whichever film wins Best Picture will be coming out of December. Let's take a look at some of the possible nominees, shall we?
First, we have what I believe are the two most obvious choices to win Best Picture, David Fincher's The Girl w/the Dragon Tattoo and Spielberg's War Horse. Personally, I see this coming down to a battle between Fincher and Spielberg for Best Director as well as Best Picture, and if there's one thing history's taught us it's that the Academy has a difficult time differentiating between the two.
Dating back to 2000, only two people have failed to take home the award for Best Director when their respective films have gone on to win Best Picture (Ridley Scott -- Gladiator; Rob Marshall -- Chicago). In 2005, Ang Lee was the only person to win the award only to have his film (Brokeback Mountain) go on to lose. Needless to say, judging by those numbers, whomever wins Best Director at this year's Oscars stands a more than good shot at winning Best Picture, which bodes very well for either of these films' chances.
Next we have Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Despite the undeniable quality the film is sure to posses, in the end it won't garner the attention, nor will it be able to conjure the same amount of momentum as the other three films coming out of December, rendering this, at least for now, a moot point.
Then we have a couple of films that are sure to be this year's darlings of the Academy, The Artist and The Descendants (and possibly Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which despite Time Magazine's broad stroked predictions, I don't see being nominated one bit). Going back to the year 2000, A Beautiful Mind ('01), Chicago ('02), Crash ('05), Slumdog Millionaire ('08), The Hurt Locker ('09), and The King's Speech ('10) were all Academy darlings and all went on to edge out the seemingly overwhelming competition in their respective years of release.
The Artist stands perhaps the best chance of winning in 2011, or at least the better of the two, as it's an ode to Hollywood's silent era, and is sure to bring music to the ears of voters despite its intrinsic lack of sound. As per The Descendants, if anybody comes out of that film with a win, it'll be Clooney.
Moneyball and The Ides of March were both excellent films, but each lack in the sense that neither are quite as 'darling' as The Artist or The Descendants, nor are they the powerhouses that War Horse or Dragon Tattoo are sure to be. Drive and Super 8 were equally fantastic as well, but stand no real chance of winning lest they even be nominated, as neither are the Academy's proverbial cup of tea.
The Tree of Life, despite being the well-deserved recipient of the Palme d'Or at this year's Cannes Film Festival, isn't quite the film critics would like you to think, and thanks to its May 27 release, will be a distant memory in the minds of voters come award season. And don't even get me started on J. Edgar, which if that even gets nominated will be a kind of victory in itself. Which brings me to the next film on my list, and one that will more than likely be all the buzz coming out of the month of December...Tintin.
The look of the film alone should be enough to give it the momentum it needs to make it a heavy among this year's potential list of nominees, at least as far as public perception is concerned. Because if there's anything Avatar's taught us, it's that a beautiful looking film (in 3D, no less) can go A LONG way in helping its chances, regardless of its subject matter. The difference is Cameron is not Spielberg, and Tintin will not be a vehicle to shamelessly incorporate 3D as a device to veil any intrinsic lack of depth in regard to its story, which by all accounts is nothing short of amazing.
Perhaps the biggest impedance to the film's chances of winning is the fact that its jockey is staking another horse in the race...literally. With War Horse more than likely being a frontrunner to win Best Picture, one could in fact hurt any chance the other might have of winning should the two unintentionally split votes, opening the door for The Girl w/the Dragon Tattoo or The Artist.
I know it's unlikely that an animated film win Best Picture, and personally I never would have liked to think it could happen. But if it is indeed ever going to happen, this is certainly the year. And who more likely than to break that glass ceiling than the Academy's favorite son, Steven Spielberg? I'm just sayin'.
Tintin won't win sadly. War horse and extremely loud and incredibly close are a little too sentimental for the academy. Dragon tattoo may be too rough though. I think best picture will go to The Artist. Maybe the descendants too.
Well, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is in a difficult spot. What if critics say that the Swedish film was better; how can it win an Oscar if it is the inferior version? It seems a difficult spot. Also, based on what I've heard and read, 50/50 is a film that many had as Oscar worthy, and and the Academy may be willing to nominate a comedy. Drive has a chance at nomination as well. As recently as October, 50/50 and Drive were being held up as the best two films of 2011 to that point, so it's difficult not seeing either of them without nominations. As for the rest, I know little about them, but will keep my head about me and try to see them when I can.
As for why tintin won't win, it's because of the blockbuster popcorny feel to it. I mean, what was the last film to win best picture that looked like a blockbuster adventure from the start? Lord of the rings? And it took 3 movies for that to happen.
@thedude-abides -- First off, I'd like to thank you for making such a great forum, allowing us to have such a intriguing debate. Secondly, if a animated film WERE to win Best Picture, I'll agree that this MAY be the time for it. But, I still don't think its' chance is anything remotely close; thanks to films that will be released this December.
@moviegeek -- Great points, man. And while I'd absolutely LOVE to see 'The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo' take home Best Picture, the film looks severely violent, given your 'rough' statement - which was extremely valid. Hey, there's always a time for a first!
Tyler Durden: You're not your job. You're not how much money you have in the bank. You're not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You're not your fucking khakis. You're the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world.
@moviegeek I agree in that I think The Artist is certainly the film the Academy is going to support, as I wrote in my dossier, lol. But I do think Tintin will get nominated. I think eight films will end up getting nominations: The four in december, the artist, the descendants, moneyball and the ides of march. Drive may stand an outside shot. What do you think? How many do you think and which ones do u think?
@thedude-abides My to see list for possible Academy considerations: The Artist, Moneyball, My Week with Marilyn, The Iron Lady, Girl with Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 50/50. Those, plus Drive and Tree of Life will prob have quite a few nominations. Throw in Descendants/Ides of March as well, since the Academy has a boner for anything George Clooney related.
@thedude-abides My reason for The Iron Lady and My Week with Marilyn is to weigh who should win/be nominated for best actress between Williams and Streep. Last year I was adamant about Portman, and ended up being right, but that was an easy one, as she was a powerhouse in that film. It'd be cool to see Gosling nominated for Drive, but he might have been too reserved for the Academy's tastes.
@ejk1 idk about gladiator... It doesn't really strike me as a big blockbuster, kinda in the same way that Forrest gump doesn't seem like one even though it turned out to be the biggest hit of the year. The one I was thinking of was titanic.
@moviegeek Great list. I agree on all except The Help, lol. If I were to make a list of 10 just to be safe, I'd have the 8 I already said, plus Drive and Tree of Life rounding out the final two spots.
@dan1 Good point. Both will surely be nominated. Personally, though, I see it going to Rooney Mara.
One thing in tintin's favor is that it probably won't be eligible for the best animated category. Voters who want to honor the movie will have to nominate it in the eat picture category.
@moviegeek You're thinking it will just get a screenplay nomination? It will, for sure, but I'm hoping it will get a best picture nom, too. I can't really see The Ides of March getting nominated, but there are enough other films that feel like shoo-ins, that you could be right that it will get left out.
However, for the sake of this forum, let's not concern ourselves with which films make it in; instead, let's set our attention on which film might come out on top. After having considered all foreseeable avenues, I don't think there's any doubt that whichever film wins Best Picture will be coming out of December. Let's take a look at some of the possible nominees, shall we?
First, we have what I believe are the two most obvious choices to win Best Picture, David Fincher's The Girl w/the Dragon Tattoo and Spielberg's War Horse. Personally, I see this coming down to a battle between Fincher and Spielberg for Best Director as well as Best Picture, and if there's one thing history's taught us it's that the Academy has a difficult time differentiating between the two.
Dating back to 2000, only two people have failed to take home the award for Best Director when their respective films have gone on to win Best Picture (Ridley Scott -- Gladiator; Rob Marshall -- Chicago). In 2005, Ang Lee was the only person to win the award only to have his film (Brokeback Mountain) go on to lose. Needless to say, judging by those numbers, whomever wins Best Director at this year's Oscars stands a more than good shot at winning Best Picture, which bodes very well for either of these films' chances.
Next we have Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Despite the undeniable quality the film is sure to posses, in the end it won't garner the attention, nor will it be able to conjure the same amount of momentum as the other three films coming out of December, rendering this, at least for now, a moot point.
Then we have a couple of films that are sure to be this year's darlings of the Academy, The Artist and The Descendants (and possibly Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which despite Time Magazine's broad stroked predictions, I don't see being nominated one bit). Going back to the year 2000, A Beautiful Mind ('01), Chicago ('02), Crash ('05), Slumdog Millionaire ('08), The Hurt Locker ('09), and The King's Speech ('10) were all Academy darlings and all went on to edge out the seemingly overwhelming competition in their respective years of release.
The Artist stands perhaps the best chance of winning in 2011, or at least the better of the two, as it's an ode to Hollywood's silent era, and is sure to bring music to the ears of voters despite its intrinsic lack of sound. As per The Descendants, if anybody comes out of that film with a win, it'll be Clooney.
Moneyball and The Ides of March were both excellent films, but each lack in the sense that neither are quite as 'darling' as The Artist or The Descendants, nor are they the powerhouses that War Horse or Dragon Tattoo are sure to be. Drive and Super 8 were equally fantastic as well, but stand no real chance of winning lest they even be nominated, as neither are the Academy's proverbial cup of tea.
The Tree of Life, despite being the well-deserved recipient of the Palme d'Or at this year's Cannes Film Festival, isn't quite the film critics would like you to think, and thanks to its May 27 release, will be a distant memory in the minds of voters come award season. And don't even get me started on J. Edgar, which if that even gets nominated will be a kind of victory in itself. Which brings me to the next film on my list, and one that will more than likely be all the buzz coming out of the month of December...Tintin.
The look of the film alone should be enough to give it the momentum it needs to make it a heavy among this year's potential list of nominees, at least as far as public perception is concerned. Because if there's anything Avatar's taught us, it's that a beautiful looking film (in 3D, no less) can go A LONG way in helping its chances, regardless of its subject matter. The difference is Cameron is not Spielberg, and Tintin will not be a vehicle to shamelessly incorporate 3D as a device to veil any intrinsic lack of depth in regard to its story, which by all accounts is nothing short of amazing.
Perhaps the biggest impedance to the film's chances of winning is the fact that its jockey is staking another horse in the race...literally. With War Horse more than likely being a frontrunner to win Best Picture, one could in fact hurt any chance the other might have of winning should the two unintentionally split votes, opening the door for The Girl w/the Dragon Tattoo or The Artist.
I know it's unlikely that an animated film win Best Picture, and personally I never would have liked to think it could happen. But if it is indeed ever going to happen, this is certainly the year. And who more likely than to break that glass ceiling than the Academy's favorite son, Steven Spielberg? I'm just sayin'.
@moviegeek -- Great points, man. And while I'd absolutely LOVE to see 'The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo' take home Best Picture, the film looks severely violent, given your 'rough' statement - which was extremely valid. Hey, there's always a time for a first!
@moviegeek I agree in that I think The Artist is certainly the film the Academy is going to support, as I wrote in my dossier, lol. But I do think Tintin will get nominated. I think eight films will end up getting nominations: The four in december, the artist, the descendants, moneyball and the ides of march. Drive may stand an outside shot. What do you think? How many do you think and which ones do u think?
2. The descendants
3. Tree of life
4. Warhorse
5. Moneyball
6. The help
7. Girl with tat
Outside of that there are 5 up in the air: the iron lady, extremely loud, tintin, Hugo, tinker tailor.
Long shots depending on success or other films' failures: we bought a zoo, 50/50, ides of march.
@dan1 Good point. Both will surely be nominated. Personally, though, I see it going to Rooney Mara.
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