Forums: The Road to the 2012 Oscars

The Oscars may seem a very long ways away, but I'm curious to see your predictions. No worries, these won't be set in stone. I'll be updating every so often different awards handed out that may play a role in the Oscar decisions.

As of now, the frontrunners for Best Picture seem to be War Horse, The Artist, The Descendants, and the BIG wild card that no one has seen, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Other ones that have the best chance to be nominated: The Help, Hugo, Harry Potter, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

For Best actor, expect George Clooney to remain the front runner until someone else surprises.

Meryl Streep is releasing a film this year and it's getting her rave reviews. Expect her to get her first win in 30 years.

Best Director will most likely follow suit with the Best Picture winner.

Best animated feature: Rango right now, with Winnie the Pooh, Kung Fu Panda, or Arthur Christmas behind. Possibly Tintin, but it probably won't be eligible.

I'd love to hear your predictions and feedback whenever!

The National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics' Circle released their prizes for the best of the year in the past days, kicking off what looks to be a close race at the Oscars (at least for Best Picture).

The New York Film Critics' Circle awarded The Artist as best film of the year, Meryl Streep for Best Actress, and Brad Pitt for Best Actor (though this group of critics likes to award actors/actresses who star in multiple features in a year... Jessica Chastain took home best supporting actress for her three roles this year).

At the National Board of Review, a surprising film took the top prize: Hugo!

Also interesting for those deep into awards coverage was their released list of the year's other top 10 films:

The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Some interesting notes on this list:

1. J.Edgar?! I'm pleasantly shocked! Surprised as well to see it eek out films like The Help and Moneyball.

2. It should be noted that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close wasn't screened in time for either of these two film critic circles.

3. VERY glad to see Harry Potter on here. What's better is that the franchise as a whole took home a special achievement award as well.

4. 50/50? Actually the film WAS nominated, but as a best "independent" film candidate. Didn't realize it was considered one, but okay.

5. Also interesting that Girl With a Dragon Tattoo is on here. That's the first sign that this film will not disappoint.

The other awards:

Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
duh

Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
what the--?

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Animated Feature: Rango

What are your thoughts? Any misgivings? Is this a good precursor of the Oscar nominations in January?

Well, Tintin has already been submitted for consideration for best animated film, so that would suggest it is eligible.

Best picture
*The Descendants
*The Artist
*Harry Potter
*Hugo
*The Tree of Life

Best Leading Actor
*George Clooney
*Michael Fassbender
*Jean Dujardin
*Brad Pitt

I don't know best Actress yet.

Best Director
*Martin Scorsese
*Terrence Malick
*Nicolas Winding Refn
*Alexander Payne
*Michel Hazanavicius

Best Animated Feature
*Rango
*Tintin

It's all I can think of right now, maybe more later and some changes.

The five locks for best picture are: War Horse, The Artist, The Descendants, Dragon Tattoo, and Tintin.

I would venture to say Moneyball will also likely earn a nomination, as will the Tree of Life. After that, it's literally anybody's guess.

I can say with some certainty that 50/50 won't be nominated. Neither will Potter, the Help, or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. The purpose of going to a flex number was to eliminate those kinds of films (i.e. The Blind Side).

It'll be between the Ides of March, Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Midnight in Paris, J. Edgar (blah), Shame and My Week w/Marilyn (giving last 2 the benefit of doubt because I will have no way of seeing beforehand) slugging it out for the last couple of spots should it even get that far...which I doubt it will.

i wouldnt be surprised if rooney mara gets nominated for dragon tattoo

i know this wont happen but i think Warrior should get nominated for something big at the Oscars.. its still my favorite film of 2011

Drive or Moneyball, maybe The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. One of these three should win Best Picture.
Sorry Moviegeek. Brad Pitt in Moneyball, perfection. Everytime i see George Clooney in a movie, I still can't get past the celebrity. Brad Pitt actually got under the skin of Billy Beane.

@pjwolsker She's my pick to win

@moviegeek Hold for now... I've got a date with "War Horse"!

@thedude-abides I'm curious why you think Tintin has any chance of being nominated for best picture, let alone be a "lock." Sure, it's gotten good reviews, but no better than other large mainstream films like Deathly Hallows or X-Men First Class, and it's not the type of film the Academy usually goes for.

I'm not saying it won't, but I think you overestimate its chances. I think it's much more likely to get a best animated picture nod. I really hope Pooh wins in that category, though. This looks to be the first year in a long time that a Pixar film will be nominated but is unlikely to win, and I'd love to see them recognize traditional animation again. The last few times great hand-drawn movies have been nominated (Persepolis, Triplets of Belleville) they've lost out to CGI films.

@shuabert A Christmas Carol was suggested and considered inelligble. If Cars 2 gets nominated I'm going to bash my TV screen in.

@thedude-abides I agree with @shuabert. I really don't think Tintin will get nominated. I'm the biggest fan of it, but films like Harry Potter and the Help will get priority over that.

@moviegeek Oh, I'm the biggest Tintin fan, and I'm eagerly anticipating the film in two weeks. I just don't see any reason to think it will be in the running for best picture, especially given that there are more than a handful of films from earlier in the year that are likely to be nominated, and at least two or three others coming out this month that I can see having a better shot at it than Tintin.

@shuabert plus, even though the film is getting great reviews, Spielberg already has a more prestigious picture releasing this year, and the buzz hasn't remained quite as hot since the European release was so early. A film like this would take two or three solid movies to be considered (which is what Jackson and Spielberg, of course, have planned!)

@moviegeek Agreed. I'm going to see the December releases when I can (and catch up on Hugo and Muppets, which I still haven't). And when I get the chance to go back through and see some of the movies I missed, like Meek's Cutoff and Beginners, I'll start making proper Oscar predictions and a top ten list.

Man, feels like it was just yesterday we did this forum...

For now:

Best Picture Nominations:

The Descendants, War horse, GWTDT, The Artist (I've yet to see, but looks worthy), Hugo and Tree of Life

Best Director Nominations:

S. Spielberg, Clint Eastwood, Terrence Malik, David Fincher

Best Animated Nomination:

TinTin, Arthur Christmas, Rango, Cars 2

Best Actor Nomination:

George Clooney, Ryan Gosling, Leo D. Brad Pitt

Best Supporting Actor Nomination:

Nick Nolte

Best Actress Nomination:

To be decided later....

Best Supporting Actress Nomination:

Jessica Chastain

My Guess:

Best Picture: The Artist, The Descendants, War Horse, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Moneyball, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and Shame

Best Director: Steven Spielberg, Alexander Payne, Michel Hazanavicius, Martin Scorsese, and Steve McQueen.

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender, Gary Oldman, Brad Pitt, George Clooney, and Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Actress: Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams, Olivia Colman, Michelle Yeoh, and Elizabeth Olson

@shuabert@moviegeek Why not? I don't see any reason to think it won't be nominated aside from what "the experts" are saying, do you? Have you seen the trailers? Perhaps I am overestimating its chances, but I don't look at it from the same vantage as the so-called "experts," who change their predictions every ten seconds. I call it the eye test. What do your eyes tell you? Just based on the trailer (because it obviously has yet to come out), if you think there are five or ten movies that look better than Tintin, then okay. Personally, I don't think there are.

Every year since the Academy expanded its number of best picture nominees, an animated film has received a nomination. In 2009, Fantastic Mr. Fox and Up were both vying for the honor. In 2010, it was Toy Story 3 and HTTY Dragon that were in contention. In both cases, only one animated film from each year ultimately went on to receive a nomination, despite all four films being heavily considered.

In both instances, the Academy seemingly weighed the animated competition against itself, rather than the rest of potential nominees (evidence by last years argument of, "will it be ts3 or httyd?"). What I'm saying is, TS3 and HTTYD were never in contention with films like Winter's Bone for one of the 10 best picture nominations; they were apparently in contention with each other for the 1 animated nomination for Best Picture.

This would indicate, whether the experts realize it or not, that nominating the best animated film from each year has become a trend with voters, and it's a trend I don't see changing this year with a film like Tintin in the fold. I would also argue that neither animated film nominated in the past two years, Up nor TS3, looks to be the film Tintin is, which again, bodes very well for its chances.

The only thing that might derail its chances is the fact that, as moviegeek alluded to, Spielberg will already have one film in the running with War Horse. But there have been many instances when the Academy has nominated the same person multiple times for a single category, so I'm not worried about that one iota.

And if the trend continues, as I've clearly pointed out, is there any doubt as to which animated film will be nominated in 2011? Of course, no. Despite my wavering faith in the Academy, I trust that they have clairvoyance enough to at least see that much. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly be the first to say so, but again, what do your eyes tell you?

What about Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe? I'm seeing the film this afternoon but I hear she's Oscar-worthy. I see her getting nominated, as well as whoever directed because the film looks beautiful. As for My Week with Marilyn having a chance at being nominated for Best Picture, I'll find out tonight. I hear its excellent though.